AFC World Cup Qualification - 12 point chaos

So two critical '6-point' matches will unfold this Tuesday, 11 October 2016.

This is what the table currently looks like, thanks to Wikipedia.

Japan take on Australia in Melbourne while the UAE travel to Jeddah to give the Saudis 2 consecutive home matches.

A lot of chaos could enfold here. I take a look at all the bad things that could happen if Australia is not careful...


Scenario 1 - Two leaders ahead of the pack

One bad scenario for Australia could look something like this:

Scenario 2 - Closely bunched but Australia in 4th

Arguably one worst case scenario would be if the Saudis drew with the UAE and the Blue Samurai gave Australia a hammering. That would create a situation like this:

Scenario 3 - "Worst case scenario"?

But probably the worst case scenario would be if UAE and Japan won, in a manner that would leave Australia trailing in 4th.

Why is Scenario 3 the worst case scenario? It depends on your view of things.

Having 3 rivals in the mix for the top 3, while you are 4th, is arguably the worst scenario because it increases the possibility that you could miss out totally for any qualification, including missing out on the third place playoff (which of course acts as a "second chance" and leads to a play-off against the 4th placed team in CONCACAF).

On the other hand, if Japan and Saudi Arabia get a big headstart for the race in the top 2 as depicted in the Scenario 1, at least there is a minor lead for the Socceroos over the UAE in the race for third.

Of course, champion teams don't talk about this nonsense and they just go out to try to win every match ---- unless of course a special mathematical situation requires a cool head and a specific set of results.

Either way, it should be interesting.

I'd predict a victory for Australia and Saudi Arabia, but imagine if I was wrong for both matches!!

Andre Lim

Most participated sports in Australia - 2014

So I came across this very interesting survey from Roy Morgan on the most participated sports in Australia.

Of course I have only taken these below tables at face value, and have not bothered with looking into the specifics of how they are derived and the assumptions made etc etc but the table is pretty surprising to me!!!

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6123-australian-sports-participation-rates-among-children-and-adults-december-2014-201503182151

I always had this distinct impression that Rugby League and AFL would be a lot higher up the list, and I would never have guessed some of these sports in the top 10 (sports that surprised me emphasised below in bold and red):

1. Swimming
2. Cycling
3. Soccer
4. Dancing
5. Basketball
6. Hiking/Bushwalking
7. Tennis
8. Cricket
9. Athletics/Track & Field
10. Netball

Basketball, really?!

Also I am unsure how "sport" has been defined here...

Also there is a table that shows sport participation rates based on Ages 6-13 and Age 14+.

It seems to me that the future of football ("soccer") in Australia is looking up given that 1,194,000 children aged 6-13 play the game, the second highest of any sport for that age group.

There always is this prevailing concept that AFL, NRL and the vast horde of other sports in Australia have "stolen", "drowned out" or "snatched away" all the talent available that will eventually be available to the Socceroos.

Perhaps these statistics suggest otherwise?!

Andre Lim

Bud Greenspan's Salt Lake 2002: Stories of Olympic Gold

Sometimes in life, there is a bit of trial and error involved.

As many of us know, many of these ventures eventuate into disappointing 'misses', and the 'hits' we seek out are so rare. Ever so occasionally though, just when things get boring, you stumble upon something new that makes you excited and inspired. And that's when it is all worth it.

That life concept can be applied to anything, but in this case I am applying it to something rather unimportant and unworthy in the grand scheme of things....

I purchased Bud Greenspan's Salt Lake 2002: Stories of Olympic Gold from Amazon with some degree of expectation. This was after I had read a comment on Amazon which said words to the following effect:

"Check out Bud Greenspan sports documentaries - they are simply the best in the genre." 

I have been collecting DVDs on the Olympics so I thought I would just go for Mr Greenspan's coverage of the 2002 Winter Olympics.

Price: About $45 AUD, including shipping
Length: About 2 hours

Over the years I have learned to take such comments with a grain of salt, but this DVD blew my mind away. The storytelling involved is great and Mr Greenspan goes above and beyond the call of duty - beyond mere Olympic highlights - to tell the stories, blood, sweat and tears of all athletes covered.

This DVD is easily one of my favourite sports DVDs.

In addition to brief glimpses of the opening and closing ceremonies, six stories are covered:

Jim Shea Jr (Skeleton); 

Janic Kostelic (Alphine Skiing); 

Canada v USA (Men's Ice Hockey); 

Stefania Belmondo (Cross-Country Skiing); 

Alisa Camplin (Freestyle Aerials); and 

Brian Shimer (4-man Bobsled)

All of these stories share a common element: the athletes or team faced testing times and some measure of intense adversity.

My favourite story was probably Stefania Belmondo's, who quite epically, overcame a 13 second gap (I think) after her right ski pole broke to take out Gold !!! Prior to the race, no one had given her a chance because she was deemed 'too old'. Belmondo was so angry that her ski pole broke but she admirably channelled her anger in a positive manner to catch up and take out top spot --- not without the help of her coach though who had to quickly drop everything to find her a new pole.

Thanks to Getty Images

Similarly, if I remember correctly Brian Shimer attended his 5th Olympic Games at Salt Lake City as the driver of the USA-2 four-man bobsleigh team. He too was deemed 'too old' to win any medal.

Thanks to Wikipedia

Shimer had always finished outside a medal position at the last 4 Olympic Games, and there was a low point for him when he thought he had finished in 4th place "again" in 2002 after his team failed to beat USA-1.

This occurred in circumstances where Switzerland and Germany were expected to fight it out for Gold while USA-1 and USA-2 were expected to slot it out for the Bronze medal. The pure elation of the team and himself was evident when, amazingly, Switzerland failed to live up to the hype! It wasn't a gold medal but all of them certainly didn't care. USA took out Silver and Bronze.

This made me realise that it's all a matter of perspective - for example, for triple Silver medallist, Lee Chong Wei, a Silver medal could be viewed as a curse; for Brian Shimer Bronze is the top of the world.

The other stories were also quite simply fantastic:

Courtesy Getty

• Ms Camplin winning the first gold medal for an Australian woman at the Winter Olympics (the honour of Australia's first ever gold medal going to one Steven Bradbury at the same games.....another story worth telling on its own merits); 
• Jim Shea Jr overcoming the grief of losing his grandfather (who was an Olympian like his father, Jimmy Shea Senior!) just one month out before the Games started to win Gold just as his grandfather did; 
• Janica Kostelic giving Croatia their first ever Gold medal (and more!) at the Winter Games despite being an underdog in some events and having several knee surgeries. Her unusual but effective training regime is a must watch for any athlete;
• The Canadian Hockey Team finally defeating their nemesis the USA after a long long gold medal drought.

Rating

I'd highly recommend this DVD to all sports fans, particularly Olympic fans.

My score is: 9 to 9.5 out of 10, perhaps 9.3.

I will be looking out for Bud Greenspan's DVDs from now on.

Now I'm off to watch the last quarter of Western Bulldogs v Swans....

Really hoping for a Bulldogs upset.

Andre Lim

Quote of the week

"What you are is never what you call yourself or what others have to say about you. At the end of the day, a person is always measured by what they do and not what they *say* they do..."

Andre Lim

Life Skills to Learn #1

As we all know, diplomacy and social skills are so important in everyday life.

One excellent life skill, I think, would be the ability to pacify an angry person mid-way during their rage attack.

In fact, ANY skill that neutralises or diffuses the tension in a situation would be excellent.

If someone has learnt how to do this, kindly let me know!! =)

Andre Lim

Quote of the Month

"The more things change the more they stay the same."

-- Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr

Andre Lim

Road to Russia 2018

The Socceroos have a tough trip to Abu Dhabi on Tuesday 6 September 2016 (early Wednesday morning for us). The United Arab Emirates are relatively strong opponents so this will be the Socceroos' first true test.

However, this is only the beginning. Australia play away in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on 6 October 2016, followed by a home match against Japan on 11 October 2016. We know how difficult it is to play in the Middle East, in the 35 degree+ heat coupled with sandstorms and heatwaves aplenty (although in September it is admittedly cooler at about 31 degrees+). And we know how difficult the Japanese are, who in particular will be wanting to set the record right after their shock and controversial loss to the UAE.

So this tough journey got me thinking.

What is the rough number of points the Socceroos need to qualify for the World Cup?

To answer this question, I travelled back through time to see what points were required in previous campaigns.



2014

The average tally required to make it to the top 2 in each group during the 2014 World Cup Qualifiers was 15 points [16 + 14 + 17 + 13 divided by 4] out of a possible 24 points.

This equates to a percentage of 62.5%.

2010

The average tally required to make it to the top 2 in each group during the 2010 World Cup Qualifiers was 15.75 [20 + 15 + 16 + 12 divided by 4] out of a possible 24 points.

This equates to a percentage of 65.625%.

2006

The average tally required to make it to the top 2 in each group during the 2006 World Cup Qualifiers was 13 [14 + 10 + 15 + 13 divided by 4] out of a possible 18 points.

This equates to a percentage of 72%.

2002 and 1998

The 2002 qualification campaign was a bit strange because South Korea and Japan had already qualified, so only 2.5 teams were allowed through.

The 1998 qualification campaign was also different in that only 3.5 teams were allowed through.

Because of those slight anomalies, I have not looked at those campaigns.

I am also slightly lazy to look through the other pre-1998 campaigns, but I think you would find similar reasons for those campaigns.

It therefore seems like the average percentage rate (points to maximum points ratio) required to qualify is (62.5+65.625+72) divided by 3 = 66.71%.


Conclusion

Therefore, in this 2018 World Cup Qualification Campaign where there are 10 matches played in total, it seems to me that the Socceroos need a minimum of 66.7% of 30 points which is about 20 points.

That's equivalent to 6 wins and 2 draws.

On this analysis, if Australia can win all their home games, win 1 away game, and draw 2 other tough away games, they should be safe.

However it seems to me that this analysis assumes that the weaker teams will capitulate. This is a tough group and it does not seem to me that there are any easy matches.

In this climate, perhaps 6 wins - 18 points - will be barely enough.

Andre Lim